The Manchester Derby

Everybody is offering their predicted formations and results for this game right now. Personally, since Manchester City are at home, very settled and have to win, I think their formation is relatively easy to predict. I expect it to be their usual 4-2-2-2 with Barry and Toure holding, Silva and Nasri on each wing but coming inside and Tevez and Aguero furthest forward. Generally, when playing together, Aguero pushes up onto the last man whereas Tevez will stay deeper between the opposition lines of midfield and attack. This causes a lot of problems as the defence must either step up toward Tevez, but leave themselves vulnerable to Aguero’s pace, or drop deep. This means they must either have their central midfielders move deep as well to cover Tevez but sacrifice some attacking threat to do so, or leave Tevez with a lot of space which is dangerous.

How United will deal with this threat is likely to be the key aspect of this game, especially as a win isn’t entirely necessary so blunting the City attack ought to be an attractive proposition. Ferguson’s tactics are often difficult to understand and his tactical nous has been questioned in the past. This isn’t to say he has no tactics however, far from it. The trouble is rather than making the expected changes of shape he often subtly adjusts his normal 4-4-2 in order to deal with different threats. He does this either by using different personnel such as Park, Valencia and Nani as well as the varied midfield duos available, thus offering different interpretations of the same roles, or by asking players such as Rooney to alter the role they play. As a result of this they can line up with the same team in successive games but with vastly different formations, as shown below.

 Due to the fact United don’t have to win and are playing away, albeit within the same city, I would expect them to line up with something approaching the second variant shown above. Also, the majority of Manchester City’s defeats this season have been inflicted by the 3 man midfields of Bayern Munich, Sunderland, Swansea and Arsenal. The personnel is the interesting question. I wouldn’t really like to speculate who Ferguson will select, instead I’ll offer what I would do and explain why.

While my first choice would probably be to sacrifice Welbeck for an extra “true” midfielder and allow Rooney to move higher up the pitch I doubt Ferguson will do this so I will ignore it. The main area I think United ought to make a selection alteration is to utilise Phil Jones in the CM/DM role. This is because it solves their defensive dilemma regarding Tevez and Aguero. Jones will be comfortable sitting deep and tracking Tevez on his own, allowing his partner, most likely Scholes or Carrick, to move forward in possession and either sit deep alongside him when defending, in order to congest the midfield area that Nasri and Silva will also move into, or pressurise Toure and Barry higher up the pitch with Rooney. Of these options I would pick the former as neither Toure nor Barry offer much creativity and incisive passing from deep, hence the loan signing of Pizzaro as a regista (deep-lying playmaker). 

Additionally with Jones in midfield Ferguson may feel more willing to field the less defensively reliable option of Nani on the left as he did against Everton. This would pit him against the less attacking Zabaleta (unless Richards is fit) and Nani offers greater variety in attack. If United don’t field Jones in midfield then I would be very surprised to see Nani, instead I expect they will defend deeper in two banks of 4, requiring the greater discipline of Valencia and Young. Also Ferguson obviously doesn't trust Nani against attacking fullbacks as he chose to use him on the left last week against Everton rather than up against Baines on the right.

These changes would mean United lined up as below and had clearly defined battles against the City attacking players with either Evans or Ferdinand as the spare man depending upon which side Aguero moves to.

Surprises

There is a lot of room for this in Ferguson’s selection, hence I have offered my own ideas rather than a genuine prediction of his lineup. The less unexpected surprises may be to drop Welbeck and use an extra midfielder, to use Valencia, Smalling or Jones at Right Back if he is unsure of Rafael defensively (though he has started quite a few games recently) or to use the energy and discipline of Park either wide or in midfield in place of Welbeck.

The Value of Goals

Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll have a lot of things in common, large transfer fees, widespread criticism and now important, valuable goals.

FA Cup

Andy Carroll’s goal against Everton in the FA Cup was worth a minimum of £1.8m in prize money, rising to £2.7m if Liverpool wins in the final. This is based purely upon the money won following his goal and, in the case of a win in the final, the money they have the potential to win as a result of that goal. This is obviously added to by the money the club may receive from sponsorship bonuses and any other additional revenues that the final may generate, either through merchandise or more indirect potential revenues from the added publicity the club will receive. A study on the financial impacts of the FA Cup by Deloitte states that a Championship or Premier League club entering in the third round will win a minimum of £3.4m, so Carroll’s goal is responsible for around 80% of Liverpool’s winnings and Deloitte also reveals that clubs receive a significant proportion of the gate receipts in addition to television money for games covered live.

Using the example of Stoke’s run to the FA Cup Sixth Round in 2009/10 Deloitte shows that just by reaching the Sixth round through playing Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and York City, Stoke earned an additional £1.8m. From reaching the final Liverpool can expect a substantially higher payment than this and, combined with the prize money and other additional revenue generated as a result of the final appearance, this means they can expect a very healthy return on Carroll’s goal. The win also would have secured Europa League qualification had they not already secured it through the League Cup and last season Villarreal earned 9m Euros from this competition.

Champions League

Last year as losing finalist Manchester United were awarded 5.6m Euros, which is roughly £4.5m, on top of the money they had already won from previous rounds. Presuming the prize money is around the same this year (it may well have increased) Torres can reasonably claim to have been responsible in part for a significant proportion of that. Chelsea may have been going through with the score at 2-1 but Torres’ goal sealed it so his contribution was significant and again there are substantial additional revenues to be generated through this result, particularly if Chelsea only manage to secure Champions League qualification for next season by winning the tournament. Chelsea’s total earnings from the competition in 2010/11 were 44.5m Euros when they only reached the Quarter Finals so qualification and progress is very well rewarded. Even the lowest earners MSK Zilina who lost all 6 of their games earned 7.4m Euros.

Conclusion

To say that Torres and Carroll can claim full responsibility for these earnings would be ridiculous. Football is a sport of 11-a-side teams and the substitutes, coaches, staff and fans also deserve credit. Despite this I think the financial implications of these two goals certainly deserve some recognition and perhaps, combined with their sentimental value, they will help to quieten down some of the criticism of these two players. On the basis that they can’t claim full responsibility for this income, people, equally, can’t deny their contribution to the other results of their clubs and the financial benefits of these. £85 million is a lot for 16 goals between them but that’s a massive simplification of their contributions.

Sources:

FA Cup Prize Money: (http://www.thefa.com/TheFACup/News/2012/Apr/~/link.aspx?_id=9418FC357BF94B55989FD53EF01251DC&_z=z)

Deloitte Report: (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=fa%20cup%20semi%20final%20revenue%202012&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thefa.com%2FTheFACup%2FNews%2F2012%2FJan%2F~%2Fmedia%2F421387323A984557A3686BA18D383E6D.ashx&ei=DxqYT66KFOnN0QXhioT3BQ&usg=AFQjCNE9E2GFOtgcCRYuiPGCYy4CKY-QqA&cad=rja)

Champions League Financial Distribution 2010/11: (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/management/finance/news/newsid=1661038.html)

Villarreal Winnings mentioned here: (http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/story/_/id/7777957/michael-cox-europa-league-deserves-more-respect)

Bayern's Missed Opportunity and Chelsea's Chances

Bayern Munich – Real Madrid

A front 4 of Ozil, Ronaldo, Di Maria and Benzema, with 65 goals and 36 assists between them in 112 La Liga appearances this season, is terrifying. Despite this, Bayern managed 54% possession and managed 10 shots to Real’s 9 while restricting Ronaldo to 5 shots, and 58% pass accuracy, a significant decrease of his season average (for further comparison against top sides he still managed 7 in the 3:1 defeat at the Bernabeu earlier this season in which Barcelona had 62% possession).

On twitter there were a lot of people questioning how quiet Ronaldo was and this definitely represents a success for Bayern. However, it came at a price. Real looked disorganised, undermanned in midfield and, as noted in a few other places, Alonso looked tired. Munich could have scored more, in fact Gomez perhaps should have done on a couple of occasions before he finally did. This presents a missed opportunity for Bayern as they conceded an away goal so a 1-0 win at the Bernabeu would see Madrid through to the final whereas capitalising on Real’s weaknesses may have put them in a much stronger position.

The Coentrao-Robben Factor

Coentrao started at left back and, despite Robben receiving criticism for being ineffective or uninvolved, also managed to have a poor game by most accounts. This is an area that Bayern could have looked to exploit and yet the average player positions show that Toni Kroos (No. 39 in the picture below) was very close to Ribery (No. 7) for large periods rather than moving from side to side and assisting Robben as well. 

This is shown in the stats for passes received and passes made for the 2 players with Ribery receiving 32 and making 48 compared to 23 and 32 for Robben. Additionally 11 of Robben’s passes came from Lahm, the right back, which insinuates a large proportion of them will have come from behind him rather than from alongside him in order to help him get in behind Coentrao. This is an area Kroos (who provided and received a combined 21 passes from/with Ribery compared to 11 with Robben) definitely could have provided support and later even Thomas Mueller, while providing more of an attacking threat, played quite centrally rather than looking to exploit Real’s weakness at Left Back.

It’s not all about the passing though, Robben was clearly keen to take on Coentrao, completing 4 dribbles which was the highest of any player on the pitch, however the absence of support alongside him meant Coentrao could focus solely upon stopping Robben rather than having his focus diverted by the movement of Kroos.

Chelsea – Barcelona

I haven’t yet seen this game so there may be something more on it tomorrow but, as great a result as it is for Chelsea and as much as I want to see them succeed (not only as a British side, but also as I’m a little tired of Barcelona and because more games for Chelsea means a more tired side for Liverpool to face in the FA Cup final), I don’t think this result changes much. Barcelona have only failed to win at home by 2 goals or more at home in the Champions League twice in the last 2 seasons in the Champions League (1-1 against Real Madrid last season in the second leg of the Semi Final and 2-2 vs AC Milan in the group stage this year) and only twice in 16 home games in La Liga this season. This does not bode well for Chelsea’s slender advantage.

Saints, Dortmund and Young

Things I Have Learnt This Week

This is extremely belated as I’ve been working on my dissertation for uni recently so football has been on the backburner, but here are a few things I saw/learnt this week.

Southampton vs Reading

In the top of the table clash in the Championship on Friday Southampton managed 12 shots on target out of 19 and 59% possession yet lost 3-1 to a Reading side with only 4 shots on target and 6 in total. While many will point quite rightly to the substitute Adam Le Fondre who had an instant impact similar to that in the game against Leeds recently, I don’t really think he was the difference here. Quite a lot of the Southampton chances were from early crosses and diagonal balls aimed at Rickie Lambert and I think this contributed to their lack of goals as the quality of these chances was quite low. Adam Lallana, a 5 ft 7 midfielder attempted several headers from these passes but struggled as it isn’t exactly his strength and the same could be said of Lambert’s strike partner Billy Sharp who was bullied out of contention. The main culprit for these passes was Richard Chaplow who didn’t have a good game and rarely attempted to get past Ian Harte at left back despite the former Leeds man being 7 years his senior and not being known for his pace even in his younger days.

Borussia Dortmund

They Love a Polish Player – they contributed 3 players to the most recent Polish squad, more than any other side. Also in that trio (Błaszczykowski, Lewandowski and Piszczek) they have the Polish captain and 111 caps for Poland. I presume this is just coincidence as Dortmund is quite far from the Polish border but it’s odd nonetheless.

They Interview the Director of Sport Post Game – I don’t remember seeing this in Britain and it took me by surprise. Since this is a man who has a large role within the club and in Britain is often seen as a controversial figure I wonder if adopting a similar approach may help. Perhaps if someone like Damien Comolli at Liverpool were to be more of a public figure like this then they may get a better time from fans and the press.

They Have a Council of Elders – I have no idea what this is and I would love to know but on the Borussia Dortmund website they have a group of people listed as the “Council of Elders”.

Ashley Young

He has received a lot of criticism recently for his theatrics in winning penalties against QPR and Aston Villa. Generally I am on the side of the attackers when criticised for making a meal of a challenge as you can hardly expect them to do otherwise when there is some contact made, anything else would be less reflective of their team's interests and I am generally in favour of things that create more goals and limit the ability of teams to just shut up shop on the end of their box. In the Ashley Young case I think his two recent dives have taken it a stage too far as he wasn't making a meal of contact, he was entirely feigning it. It's his choice and it's not difficult to see why he has chosen this but he ought to beware of the longer lasting effects as in the future he may struggle to win penalties for genuine fouls, something which happened to Suarez at times while still at Ajax.

Generally speaking Ashley Young is a clever player who knows how to win penalties by putting himself in a position to be fouled, hence winning the most penalties and free kicks last season, in order to keep this ability he should probably think about it before he next attempts to win a penalty.

Milan vs Barcelona (A preview and an idea)

Tonight's second leg Quarter Final between Barcelona and AC Milan is probably the most hotly anticipated of the ties due to the sides involved and the 0-0 draw in the previous leg at the San Siro. There are quite a few interesting stories surrounding this tie, from players facing each other having previously played together in Aquilani-Mascherano and Fabregas-Flamini, to players returning to their previous club, such as Ibrahimovic, Zambrotta, Maxi Lopez and Van Bommel.

The picture above shows the result of the Champions League Final in 1994 in which Pep Guardiola played and Carles Busquets, father of Sergio, was on the bench for Barcelona. The current Milan side is, as has been discussed in many other places, a team lacking the ball-playing talents of recent Milan sides featuring the likes of Pirlo, Kaka, Seedorf and Rui Costa in the same 11. Although Seedorf is still at Milan his current role is more limited and he plays deeper than he has done previously, in combination with this the current Milan side relies more upon the physicality of its members than it has done in the past. For this reason, I think Milan can learn a lot from the result of the side circa 1994 and the defensive "catenaccio" tactics they employed.

The Barcelona formation is expected to be relatively predictable with their style and ability allowing them to impose themselves upon other sides and force them to react, while most are expecting Milan to line up in their regular 4-3-1-2 formation. I think that, with 1 goal forcing Barcelona to score twice, Milan would do well to make a slight alteration to their regular system and select Emanuelson ahead of Robinho and alongside Boateng in a 4-3-2-1 formation behind Ibrahimovic. This extra presence in midfield would aid Milan in breaking up and resisiting the Barcelona possession by adding the energy of Emanuelson as well as allowing Milan to employ one of their favoured modes of attack in allowing Ibrahimovic to drop deep and make himself available to receive the ball leaving Boateng and, in this case, Emanuelson to move forward to become the main goal threat like they did in this goal against Arsenal. Also the additional player in midfield would relieve the pressure on Boateng to provide a link to the attack as well as allowing the band of 3 to remain deeper and restrict Barcelona's ability to counter attack.

In conclusion, I think this game may well be quite tense and uneventful with Milan defending deep and unwilling to risk going behind when they know 1 goal would put them in an excellent position, especially when they pose a threat from set pieces. I would like to see Milan recognise this by selecting Emanuelson ahead of the lower work ethic of Robinho, although it may well be difficult for Allegri to make such a decision.